From 1993 to 2013, China''s gold
marketization has experienced a full 20 years.
This book relays via first hand insight
how the Chinese gold marketization overcame its predicament and ascended to its
current status.
In fact, not only did China’s gold market
improve from nearly forgettable to the world’s second largest soon to be
largest, it even revolutionized the international gold market by creating an
innovative new gold market system!
If you are interested in the current or
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關於作者：
Liu Shan''en, a senior economist. He has served as general office director
and deputy director ofNationalGoldBureauEconomicDevelopmentResearchCenter,
as well as deputy editor-in-chief of "China Gold Economy". Currently,
he serves as the secretary-general of the Expert Committee forBeijingGoldEconomyDevelopmentResearchCenter.
He has served as economic adviser for many companies, planned and hosted
a number of national or international forums and training courses, as well as
launching the "High-level training programs for China gold investment and
trading "and first Chinese "training courses for master of commerce
and industry " by cooperating with several organizations and first Chinese
"Golden Bachelor of science in economics”. He has published many papers
and reports on special topics.
He is one of the few experts who tracked and studied the whole process of
the marketization of gold in our country. He first voiced the need of
market-oriented reforms of the gold trading. His relevant academic points of
view are of great influence in society and very foresighted, along with a lot
of theoretical achievements.
目錄：
Introduction
Chapter One Economic
Perspectives
Gold Control: A
Monetary Policy
Gold Control in
China: A Historic Overview
Deng Xiaoping’s
Commitment to Reform and Socialist Market Economy
Chapter Two A
Remote Town Fired First Shot in Gold Management Reform
Ganwang Town’s
Attempt to Break Institutional Constraints on Gold Market
1993: The
Starting Year of the Market-oriented Reform of Gold Management System
Interpretation
of the Official Written Reply No. 63 of the State Council
Chapter Three Rebuilding
and Restructuring of Structure of Interests
Underlying Cause
of Change in Structure of Interests: Gold Price Adjustment
Reform Momentum
was Waning in a 6-year Period
Struggling for
Survival: Reform of the Management System in Gold Industry
Restructuring of
Gold Jewelry Industry
PBOC’s
Transformation from the Defenders of Old System to the Reformer
Chapter Four Start Everything from Zero
1999:
Reactivation of Market-Oriented Reform of Gold Management System
Gold as
Commodity versus Gold as Special Resource
Winding Path of
Advancement, and Marching on in the Changes
Significant
Adjustment in Reform Appeals
Shift in
Taxation System of Gold Trading
“Taxation
Depression”: A Strategic Choice of the State
An International
Troop in the Reform Progress
Chapter Five A
Development Path from Unitary to Diversity
Continuation of
History and Starting Point in Reality
Choice of a
Unified Market Approach in Gold Market Development
Proceeding in
the Unified Market Approach and its Termination
Futures: A
Revolution of the Gold Market
From Unified to
Diversified Gold Market
Chapter Six Striding
Towards a New Height in Development
A New Height in
the Liberalization of Gold
Who can Reign
over the Diversified Market
Innovation:
Source of Development of Gold Market
Dilemmas of
Innovation Encountered by the Shanghai Gold Exchange
Shanghai Futures
Exchange: Enhancement of Risk Management Capabilities
Offsite Exchange
Market and Market Maker System
Outdated
Legislation is the Achilles Heel of Reform
Postscript
內容試閱：
Introduction
Some people said the 21st century will be the
Chinese Century.Though we do not take this assertion too seriously, it is
unarguable thatin the 21st century China will play a very important part in the
world,since the Chinese dream of the great revitalization of China is
comingtrue. This tremendous change of China from a poor and weak country over
the past 100 years to the engine of global economic growth in the 21st century
must be attributed to the reform and opening-up policy initiated in the late
1970s. Since then, China has embarked on the journey of building the socialist
market economy. However, during the course of the market-oriented reform, it’s
not all smooth sailing; loss of direction, twists and turns all were
experienced. Thirty years later, when looking back we all have a special
feeling in our heart. Remembering history does not mean going back to the old
road; conversely, reflecting on history helps us be better prepared for the
future. As history is a mirror to the future, learning from history enables us
to have a better understanding of the current situation and keep moving in the
right direction, thereby keeping us from repeating past mistakes.
As an integral
part of China’s overall market-oriented reform, the liberalization of China’s
gold market has undergone the two decades of progress since 1993 when the State
Council issued the Official Written Reply No. 63. Though the market-oriented
reform of gold management system might only be a spray in the tide of reform
and opening up, it is worth tracking and reviewing its development history,
through which we can examine the progress of China’s great cause of reform from
a special angle. The great transformation over past twenty years simulates many
people to reflect on the whole process of this market-oriented reform. In particular,
as an observer who has witnessed the whole process of this great
transformation, I have had profound reflections and insights on it. Therefore,
I decide to write this book to thoroughly review and scrutinize the whole
course of the reform of gold management system in China.
At the end of
1991, I joined the Economy Development Research Center of the National Gold
Bureau, a newly established agency and served as the director of the Economy
Research Department. I started my career as an economy researcher on gold at
the time just before the goal of building the socialist market economy was set
by the Chinese Leadership. Albeit at that time under the planned economy system
gold was still a commodity subject to the strictest state monopoly on the
purchase and distribution,the conditions for the market-oriented reform of gold
management system were in the process of forming. So the first research project
I undertook was the market-oriented reform of gold management system in China.
I completed this project in 1992 and pioneered in researching this subject
among Chinese scholars. Thereafter I have become both an observer and a
researcher of the whole course of the market-oriented reform of gold management
system in China.
Over the 21-year period of the market-oriented reform of gold
management system, I have continuously furthered my research on this subject and
deepened my insight and understanding of the reform. During this period, I have
published nearly 100 academic papers and research reports, completed over 30
research projects, and compiled two university textbooks. All these
publications recorded both the history the marketoriented reform of gold
management system in China and my thinking and explorations in this area. Along
with the advancement of the reform, the understanding of the participants of
the reform has ever deepened.
At the beginning of the new century, I started entering the new area
of the theoretical research on gold investment market and the training of gold
trading professionals. In partnership with several universities and
non-governmental institutions, I organized and hosted a number of forums and
training programs concerning gold market and gold investment and transaction,
and helped establish China’s first MBA
program and undergraduate program of gold economics. While conducting my economic
research on gold, I also participated in the compilation of textbooks and the
teaching work.
What touched me and impressed me most is that with the advancement of
the market-oriented reform of gold management system, our understanding of the
reform has been gradually deepened. Looking back is also a part of the process
of deepening our understanding. In 1993 when many people advocated the
market-oriented reform of gold management system and the shaking off of the
state monopoly on the purchase and distribution of gold, they were largely motivated
by emotion and profitmaking intention, and lacked deep thinking and adequate
theoretical preparation. As a result, the reform measures and practices were
usually the passive response to practical issues, rather than the step-by-step
implementation of the well-formulated overall planning. Over the course of the
reform, there were both successful experience and lessons of failure, advancement
and retreatment. In this sense, looking back and summarizing the course of the
reform is the meaningful reconsideration. In writing this book, I endeavor to
thoroughly review the 21-year period of the market-oriented reform of gold
management system in China and further deepen our understanding of the reform.
Under the traditional system of gold control, the China’s gold
industry had received the priority support from the State with the pressing need
for gold, and therefore had achieved a 20-year consistent growth since the mid
1970s. It was reluctant for them to part from the traditional planned economy system, because
this means they have to accept the loss of their vested interest and encounter
the uncertainty of the prospect of the market-oriented reform of gold
management system. For this reason, although many people eagerly expected the
liberalization of the gold market, they were also in fear and trembling when
the State decided to take a key step in de-regulating China’s gold market in
1999. As at that time the international gold market was still in the midst of a
long term bear market with declining trading volume, the People’s Bank of
ChinaPBOC responsible for implementing the policy of the state monopoly on the
purchase and distribution of gold faced unprecedented tremendous pressure of
economic loss. In this situation, the PBOC had to take a risky move to
de-regulate the gold market and change the mode of gold transaction. Surprisingly,
the year 2002 in which the liberalization of China’s gold market was realized
was also the year the secular bear market of gold came to an end and the
10-year bull market of gold commenced. During this period, the gold price was
soaring and hit record highs for many times, providing the investors with more
profit-making opportunities and thereby significantly improving market
sentiment. In addition, the outbreak of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis in
2007 caused the global financial crisis, and the outburst of the European debt crisis
in 2010 triggered the global economic crisis. These crises of credit assets made
gold as a highly-trusted and valuable safe asset that can effectively ward off
credit risk stand out. The people’s enthusiasm
for the gold market has been kindled. This is an important extrinsic factor in
facilitating the smooth and successful liberalization of China’s gold market.
The end of a 20-year bear market of gold and the reappearance of the
bull market of gold created a favorable market environment in which the
opportunity is far greater than challenge, thus facilitating the very smooth
transition of China’s gold industry to a market-based system from the command
economy system. To the great surprise of most people, this transition was
characterized by the low risk and the huge bonus of the market transition. The
11-year period since 2002 when the Shanghai Gold Exchange SGE was opened is
only a moment in the history, but is the most splendid stage in the development
history of China’s gold industry. During
this period, China has become the largest gold producer in the world and turned
into the leader in the international gold industries from a follower; a
flourishing gold fabrication industry has been rising and China has become the
second largest producer of gold products after India; the construction of a
sound gold market from scratch has been basically completed; and China’s spot
gold and gold futures trading volume ranked first and fourth respectively in
the world.
These developments prove that the establishment of the market
economy system of gold greatly improves the efficiency and optimization of the
allocation of gold resources, which is reflected in both the rapidly expanding
scale and the rapidly improving economic performance of China’s gold industry.
But we must also remember that the flow of capital is driven by profit-seeking
motivation. Once the market condition changes, the capital outflows will pose a
challenge to the development of China’s gold industry. In this sense, the
market-oriented reform of China’s gold management system is only half
completed, and during the second half of the reform process the key issue will
be how to address the challenge of the potential bear market of gold. Up to
now, however, this issue remains unaddressed. It is still unknown what solution
proposal will be put forward in response to the coming of a bear market of
gold. Looking ahead, much work still needs to be done.
Despite of the fact that the market-oriented reform of the gold
management system in China has undergone the two decades of progress since 1993
when the State Council issued the Official Written Reply No. 63, and the China’s gold market has experienced ten years of high-speed development
since October 2002 when the SGE was opened, the China’s gold market is still a
late comer when compared with the international gold market, with a three
decades of development lag. The later-comer’s advantage is on full display in
that the China’s gold market has achieved both stable and speedy growth. Much
experience can be drawn from the market-oriented reform of the gold management
system in China. Behind a series of data are the games among stakeholders and
the evolution of development logic.
The emergence of a thing has its underlying cause, and the change of
a thing has its internal logic. But
these causes and logic are hidden in the presentation of things. Only from
outward appearance to inner essence can we find them. For this reason, in
addition to the complete narrative of the history of the marketoriented reform
of the gold management system in China, I endeavor to present some description
of the process in which the underlying momentum of the reform is accumulated
and released.
Even after the reform of economic system in China had accomplished
some advancement, the Chinese government still maintained the gold control
system characterized by the state monopoly on the purchase and distribution of
gold, given the fact that the foreign exchange was in extreme shortage and the
demand for gold was pressing. The China’s gold industry was once called the
last ”bastion” of the planned economy system. Nevertheless, as a part of the
national economy, the gold industry has to adapt to the macroeconomic
environment for its survival and flourishing. Therefore, when the reform of the
macroeconomic system and the gradual transition to the market economy from the
planned economy were initiated in China, the traditional gold management system
must also be reformed. This is an irresistible general trend. Over the course
of the reform, some people tried to maintain the traditional management system,
but the facts ultimately proved that all their efforts were in vain.
Although the market-oriented reform of the gold industry was
initiated before the de-regulation of the gold market, all these efforts were
the “quantitative Accumulation” at the micro level. But the “quantitative
accumulation” ultimately leads to the “qualitative leap”. The market-oriented
reform of the gold industry is a continuous process, and the emergence of the
breakthrough point i.e. ”qualitative leap” is usually triggered by some
individual events that occurred at the micro level. During the course of the
reform, many “events” occurred. These seemingly accidental “events” are not
accidental at all and are worth thinking about. The market-oriented reform of
the gold management system in China has been continuously deepened and
broadened from the “quantitative Accumulation” to the “qualitative leap”, from
one stage to another stage: In 1993, the reform was formally initiated; in
1999, the reform was reinitiated; in 2002, the state monopoly on the purchase
and distribution of gold was abolished and the trading of gold on the free
market was commenced; in 2004, the construction of the gold investment market
was started; and in 2010, the construction of the sound gold market system was
basically completed. These are five important time points during the
market-oriented reform of the gold management system in China, at each of which
the important adjustment to the policy on gold was promulgated by the State.
Our observation of the market-oriented reform of the gold management
system in China is performed at both macro level and micro level. The macro
level refers to the nationwide reform of the economic system, while the micro
level refers to the reform of the gold management system. On one hand, the
macro reform has significant influence on the micro reform and determines the
ultimate direction of the micro reform. On the other hand, the micro reform
also has its particularity. The asynchrony between the macro reform and the
micro reform thus constitutes a basic contradiction of the market-oriented
reform of the gold management system. To resolve this contradiction, the
external impetus is a necessary condition. Any reform inevitably involves the
adjustment of the interests of various groups. Facing the loss of interests,
the majority of people will choose to follow the general trend and the
voluntary reformers are few. Hence, many reforms are in fact not the people’s
active choice, but the passive choice of going with the stream. The people who
go with the stream can obtain opportunities, while those who act against the
trend will be abandoned by the times. Such has been the case repeatedly in the
course of the market-oriented reform of the gold management system. Of course
there is nothing wrong with our emphasis on the internal cause of the change,
but the external cause of the change is equally important.
For instance, the fact that the chicken’s egg can only lay chicken
and the duck’s egg can only lay duck is determined by the internal cause. But
without the appropriate ambient temperature, the internal cause cannot enable
the egg naturally produces chicken or duck. Given the fact that the development
of the external conditions for the market-oriented reform of the gold
management system and that of the internal conditions are usually asynchronous,
this contradiction determines the path selection and the specific forms of the
reform.
The theory of
the adjustment of interests and the theory of harmonization of subjective
factors and objective factors are the two basic reference points that we employed
in observing the market-oriented reform of the gold management system in China.
The former can shed light on where the momentum of the reform is from, while
the latter can make us understand the inevitability of the results of the
reform. Though the theorizing on the observation of the reform cannot replace the
narrative of the specific events, it does help us comprehend the nature of
things and gain deeper insights into the phenomenon. The market-oriented reform
of the gold management system in China is an evolutionary process that consists
of a number of specific time points. To know where it came from and where it is
going, we should first look back at the history of gold control.
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