PART I Introduction and the study site
Chapter 1 Introduction
1.1 Background and motivation
1.2 Scope and aim of the book
1.3 Layout and structure
Chapter 2 Study site and data sources
2.1 The Brue catchment
2.2 The HYREX experiment
2.3 Weather radar and rain gauge network
2.4 Input to the mesoscale NWP model
2.5 Data utilisation and treatment of invalid data in the book
PART II Data mining issues for rainfall-runoff modelling
Chapter 3 Calibration data selection of the rainfall-runoff model
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Probability Distributed Model
3.3 Spectral analysis methods and the ICF index
3.4 Calibration methods and scenario design
3.5 Model performances of different calibration scenarios
3.6 Similarity between the calibration and validation data
3.7 Conclusions
Chapter 4 Optimal data time interval for real-time flood forecasting
4. 1 Introduction
4.2 Observed rainfall-runoff data with different time intervals
4.3 Real-time updating scheme: the ARMA model
4.4 Impact of time interval on real-time flood forecasting by case studies
4.5 Hypothetical pattern for the selection of the optimal time interval
4. 6 Conclusions
PART III Rainfall prediction using the mesoscale NWP model
Chapter 5 Numerical weather prediction and the WRF model
5. 1 Introduction
5.2 The development of numerical weather prediction
5.3 Principles and functions of the NWP model
5.4 The mesoscale NWP model
5.5 Weather Research and Forecasting model
5.6 Conclusions
Chapter 6 Sensitivity of the WRF model to domain configurations and storm types
6.1 Introduction
6.2 WRF configuration and verification
6.3 Data and experiment design
6.4 Sensitivity of the WRF model in rainfall simulation
6.5 Uncertainties in the sensitivity analyses
6.6 Conclusions
Chapter 7 Variational data assimilation system for the WRF model
7. I Introduction
7.2 Principles of the variational data assimilation system for WRF
7.3 Observation pre-proeessing OBSPROC
7.4 Running WRF-3DVar in cold-start and cycling mode
7.5 Updating WRF boundary, conditions WRFBC
7.6 Generating background error GENBE
7.7 Assimilating weather radar data
7.8 Conclusions
Chapter 8 Rainfall forecasting with data assimilation by WRF-3DVar
8.1 Purpose
8.2 ECMWF forecast products, stoma events and WRF configurations
8.3 Observational data assimilated by WRF-3DVar
8.4 Rainfall forecasting results for 24h storm events of four types
8.5 Quantification of errors of using 24h rainfall accumulations
8.6 Limitations of the radar correction ratio
8.7 Conclusions
PART IV The Integrated real-time flood forecasting system and conclusions
Chapter 9 Real-time flood forecasting using the WRF forecasted rainfall
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Real-time forecasting system by integrating WRF, PDM and ARMA
9.3 Forecast design and system identification
9.4 Performance testing of the real-time forecasting system
9.5 Evaluation of the WRF forecasted rainfall for flood forecasting
9.6 Conclusions
Chapter 10 Conclusions and recommendations
10.1 Conclusions
10.2 Limitations and recommendations for future work
References
Appendix
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