Why Prediction Markets Are Good for Business
From selecting the lead actress in a Broadway musical, to
predicting a crucial delay in the delivery of Boeing''s 787
Dreamliner months before the CEO knew about it, to accurately
forecasting US presidential elections--prediction markets have
realized some amazing successes by aggregating the wisdom of
crowds.
Until now, the potential for this unique approach has remained
merely an interesting curiosity. But a handful of innovative
organizations--GE, Google, Motorola, Microsoft, Eli Lily, even the
CIA--has successfully tapped employee insights to change how
business gets done.
In "Oracles," Don Thompson explains how these and other firms use
prediction markets to make better decisions, describing what could
be the origins of a social revolution. Thompson shows how
prediction markets can:
- draw on the hidden knowledge of every employee
- tap the "intellectual bandwidth" of retired employees
- replace surveys
- substitute for endless meetings
By showing successes and failures of real organizations, and
identifying the common roadblocks they''ve overcome, "Oracles"
offers a guide to begin testing expertise against the collective
wisdom of employees and the market--all to the benefit of their
bottom line.
關於作者：
Donald N. Thompson is an economist and professor of marketing,
emeritus, at the Schulich School of Business at York University in
Toronto. He has taught at Harvard Business School and the London
School of Economics. Thompson is author of nine books, including
"The $12 Million Stuffed Shark: The Curious Economics of
Contemporary Art," which has been published in thirteen
languages.
目錄：
Predictions from Markets
1 The Mutual Fun Market
2 What Are These Prediction Markets?
3 Sports and Movie Markets
4 Election Markets
5 Estimation Markets
6 What Can Prediction Markets Replace?
What Can Business Markets Do?
7 Google
8 Best Buy
9 The Technology Evangelist
10 Boardroom Markets
Where Can Markets Take Us?
11 Way-Outside-the-Box Markets
Casting Calls and Epidemiology
……
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